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If I was a Conservative strategist I would be very pleased with myself. The local election results could not have gone better to plan. In one fell swoop the 650 plus Tory gains have put Labour on the defensive and even threatened their heartlands, halted the Liberal Democrat revival in the West Country, pushed back the SNP advance in Scotland and destroyed UKIP. One symbolic Tory gain was winning a seat in Sedgefield, Tony Blair’s old Durham constituency. The only small flies in the ointment is that the Tory advance was contained in the big South Wales cities and they failed to make any impact in Manchester and Liverpool. We have no indicator of how London will vote.
On the face of it Theresa May is heading for a coronation in the June general election with a majority of anything from 140 to 220 with most of the four million UKIP voters in the bag to add to her diehard Tory supporters. Grim reading indeed particularly if the convention is that previous local election results underestimate swings to the government party in a general election.
But note that the Conservatives are not crowing too much about this result. The result in one sense ( with 11 council gains) has been too successful and they have to big up ” Corbyn ” or they will have no bogeyman to frighten their more affluent voters to come out and vote for May. Because if they think it is in the bag they may not bother.
They also have an interesting campaigning challenge – do they limit campaigning in Tory seats on the grounds that they are impregnable now – and go and campaign in seats where Labour has a 10,000 majority on the grounds that May is so popular that they can take these. Or do they take a more cautious approach and fight hard in their marginals.
Whatever the situation the Labour top team have got to up their game and try and convince both working class and middle class voters that are tempted by May and her robust nationalist challenge over Brexit to switch.
Labour should have the high ground on the rest of the agenda, the NHS, police and crime, education, transport, the environment and welfare. In all these areas the government is making a mess of it – and with five years of more austerity and rising prices the message ought to get through that we need a change in direction.
But it will still to be dominated by Brexit and how Britain is going to lead the negotiations – and Labour has failed to counter this.
There may be a way to deal with this. As May is not going to reveal her negotiating stand perhaps Labour who have a talented Brexit secretary in Keir Starmer should do so. What would happen if Labour took the risky chance of holding a press conference to announce their negotiating stance and their team that would go to Brussels. And what if that was combined with the post Brexit future a Labour government would provide for Britain. It would look like a government in waiting.
It would be controversial as the media would concentrate on Labour’s plan but it would put May on the defensive to explain her vision – something she is reluctant to do so given she is after a blank cheque wrapped up in the Union Jack.
And it would widen the gap between Labour and the Liberal Democrats who are seen as the remain party – but they have the problem that their increasing vote share has been eclipsed by UKIP supporters swamping them by voting for May in the West Country and elsewhere. While the Lib Dems will probably gain some seats in Remain constituencies ( St Albans,Twickenham and Bermondsey) they have no chance of becoming the official Opposition even if Labour do badly.
To my mind for Labour to try and combine their vision for Britain with their vision for Brexit could cause some of the people who have quit Labour for May to think again. It could also avert some of the most dangerous aspects of a complete breakdown with Europe.
It would look like a government in waiting”. Problem is Labour do not look like in a government in waiting. For myself the damage was done by the drip drip of the Media & some Labour politicians both on the Left & Right of the party who slowly undermined the very party to which they belong.
As for elections, the one that should ring alarms bells in Walworth Road is the Electoral Success in the North East of England of the Tory Party in Tees Valley. Certain demographic trends are turning some very safe Labour seats into near marginals. The link between work, trade union & Labour movement is breaking down due to a changing workforce. In fact the North East is resembling the Democratic South in the US. The Republicans where weak in the South in the 1960;s by 1981 Regan won every state. The Republicans developed strategies that successfully contributed to the political realignment of many white, conservative voters in the South to the Republican Party that had traditionally supported the Democratic Party.
If we view the present election, we can see the Southern Strategy at work, North East voters voted heavily to leave the EU. Not because the area was swamped with migrants, but because of the fear of foreigners taking scarce jobs and undercutting the wages particularly of the low paid. Add the fact that Labour is seen as taking the North East for granted and I suspect Blue may be seen on the North East Political map.
That is my fear – though when this happened before it was the Lib Dems who benefited in places like Newcastle – because of Brexit not so likely this time
Newcastle is not the North East, in fact even when the Liberals looked a permanent feature in the city, they only made real progress in the City of Durham & parts of Northumberland in the North East. As I wrote above you can see trends in one safe seat in 1979 Labour secured 71.4% of the vote in 2015 it secured just over 50%. which was the lowest since 1935.
The following seats could go Blue on the map Bishop Auckland, Darlington and Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. All three seats could go blue on the map. In 1966 Bishop Auckland Labour had 64% of the vote by the last election it was down to 44%.
When the election is over Corbyn if the polls are correct will be blamed for the collapse in the Labour vote. Yet, this collapse as been ongoing for many years, its like the cliff face its been receding but we fail to see the extent until that well worn path has vanished .
Yes the losses in Durham County Council are partly due to Labour councillors ignoring low paid women teaching assistants fighting not to have their wages cut by the council. They switched to the Lib Dems who backed them – who won seats – but I do know they are switching back to vote for Corbyn on June 8. this because both Corbyn and McDonnell took up their cause but still had resistance from the council.
Yes I was aware of this issue of teaching assistants as my niece is a teaching assistant. It was badly handled by the authority and never thought through. Unfortunately this is not the only Labour Council who sing from a different hymn sheet to the National Party. One council which I shall not name ran a zero hours policy and would pay staff off before they they had two years employment.
wait and see the outcome in a few weeks and see if there are any shocks in the North East.