CROSS POSTED ON BYLINE.COM
Today’s last minute polls show the volatility of the electorate and why it is has been such a difficult election to call. It started as a guaranteed ” slam dunk ” win for Theresa May with a lead over Labour of 24 points. Then the prediction was that with an unpopular Labour leader who was not supported by many of his MPs would help Theresa May increase her lead as Opposition parties tend to lose their momentum during a general election and see their position decline. Hence the initial predictions that Labour already 101 seats behind the Tories could lose another 70 seats or even more giving her a majority of 150 to 200. Instead every poll has pointed to a narrowing of the lead, Jeremy Corbyn, has surprised everyone by leading a very energetic campaign on a left wing manifesto and even passionate Tory supporters admit their own campaign has been a mess. Theresa May has not appeared as the self confident stable leader unafraid of debate. She has positively avoided it.
Then there is an expected swing to the centre which should accompany Labour moving Left.. Based on this Tim Farron hinted at first that he could replace Labour as leader of the official Opposition on the back of the 48 per cent Remain vote. Instead – and all the polls are agreed – the Lib Dems look like making little progress and could be pushed back. The electorate has become totally polarised – just like during the referendum.
And as for UKIP who once boasted that they would replace Labour in the North as the main opposition to the Tories – their collapse has been phenomenal – they are unlikely to have any representation in Parliament and have lost seats hand over fist in the local elections.
But can we trust the pollsters today? Just as in 2015 when the majority got a hung Parliament wrong – and the one poll that predicted a Tory victory over egged the size of it.
Unlike last time there is no consensus – with each poll coming to wildly different conclusions.
They range from a Tory majority of 124 and 100 – with the Lib Dems also losing every seat in England including their leader Tim Farron and former leader Nick Clegg ( to Labour) to Labour gaining seats and the Tories short of majority in Parliament. In the middle are Lord Ashcroft -Tory majority of 64 – and Nowcast with Labour losing 13 seats and the Tories gaining 23. The latter last two give Theresa May full command of the House of Commons.
Much will depend on who will vote. The young are pro Corbyn so if they turn out in substantial numbers – the result will be good for Labour. But pollsters don’t expect them to vote – and the elderly – despite the row over paying for social care to rush or even limp to the polls to ensure a big Tory victory.
Mind you if people keep telling the young they won’t vote – they may well be bloody minded enough to turn out to defy expectations.
Whatever happens it will be bad news for pollsters. Because someone is going to get the result awfully wrong – they can’t all be right.
I predict a Tory Majority of between 10-30 seats. Before the Tories heap praise on Mrs May I think a 60 seat majority was possible and she threw it away, it was hers to lose and she almost did it. As for Mr Corbyn, he has rejuvenated politics amongst the younger age groups and in many ways Corbyn has refocused Labour and the outcome may challenge New Labour’s belief that to win you need to focus on Middle England voters at the expense of the more traditional working class. In reality the old model of Social Class is breaking down, mainly due to some of the professions are resembling the working conditions of the Skilled Working class.
There is no doubt that student debt and the inability to gain access to affordable homes is having an effect on many graduates voting intentions.
Here lies the Achilles’ heel for Corbyn, the above group along with the unskilled and dare I say the growing underclass are potential Labour voters and it is amongst these groups that non voting is highest.
Whatever the outcome, one figure stands out in this election and unfortunately he will lose it and the person who was a complete disaster will win it, what an irony!
it was hers to lose and she almost did it , She hasn’t won it yet and your jumping the gun when you say it’s Labour voters that wont turn out some of you just might be in for a big shock watch this space .
In the Westminster Arms last night concerned Tory staffers revealed if May does not get 60+ she will step down post result.
Well we are still waiting
Result about Brexit? No way . People are fed up with both sides of the Brexit arguments. What yesterdays result was really about was to name a few:
The under funding of the NHS,
No real jobs for the majority of education leavers.
Zero hours contracts.
Etc etc etc.
So they claimed to be the party hard working people. Well Mrs May you and your gang did not fool anyone. The Tories are still deep down a nasty party and people know that.
Still a way to go but the hard working people of the UK will eventually get the Politicians to really serve it’s citizens – problem is how may unnecessary deaths under NHS care, benefit suicides, security personal facing the losers alone and years of loss for the young generation must we take before we can sleep the sleep of the saved?